Tourism trends 2025: Between success and disruption

It has not been as pleasing as it is now for a long time. The past year has proven to be an almost unclouded success story for global tourism. While the industry was still experiencing a gradual recovery from the coronavirus crisis in 2023, 2024 brought much better news for most companies: we are back to normal! We are back on the road to success!

In fact, sales and booking figures in many parts of the world and at almost all levels of the value chain have returned to pre-coronavirus levels or, in some cases, have already exceeded them. The development in the German travel market, where the number of vacation trips rose from 65 million in 2023 to 71 million, is indicative of a trend that could be observed in a similar way in many source markets. Other important customer markets such as the USA, France, the UK and the People's Republic of China also recorded a significant increase in demand in 2024. “The past year reveals the resilience of the tourism industry. Record figures were achieved in many places,” notes Caroline Bremner, Senior Head of Travel and Tourism Research at Euromonitor International. The results of the market research institute are impressive: according to Euromonitor, international leisure and business travel generated 4.7 trillion US dollars worldwide in 2024, a figure that Bremner estimates could rise to around 5 trillion US dollars in 2025.

Despite rising prices, the desire to travel remains unbroken

It is worth noting that the inflation of recent years, with some airlines, tour operators and the hotel industry experiencing significant double-digit price increases, has hardly slowed down the strong demand. Despite tighter budgets in many cases, the decision to take a vacation trip lasting several weeks remains a very high priority for most households. The pent-up demand of many people as a reaction to the lockdown and travel restrictions of the coronavirus years is still having a reinforcing effect here. As this special effect is likely to weaken in the future, many observers expect the momentum to level off in 2025, but at least stabilize under similar conditions. “Growth will slow, but it will continue,” predicts Mitra Sorrels, Senior Vice President of the New York-based market research institute Phocuswright, with regard to the US travel market.

However, the dangers of the slowdown cannot be overlooked. The high rates of price increases could soon have a dampening effect on demand: “The desire for one major vacation trip per year remains high in many households. However, we are also seeing that bookings for a second trip a year are already declining slightly,” observes Markus Heller, Managing Partner at Fried & Partner. Against the backdrop of rising prices, the industry needs to think about how vacation travel can remain affordable for the majority of the population in the future, the management consultant demands.

New growth impetus from dynamic regions

Important growth impulses for global tourism in 2025 are expected to come from regions with strong economic dynamics, but also from the increasing influence of players from outside the industry. The massive expansion of air traffic infrastructure in the Gulf States, the rapidly growing travel budgets of a new Indian middle class and the entry of financial investors and private equity firms into tourism are phenomena that the ITB Berlin Convention 2025 will analyze as part of its own panel events.

Digitalization and AI: revolution in tourism

However, the challenges posed by advancing digitalization and the new applications of artificial intelligence will also be general topics in 2025 that companies will have to address at almost all levels of the industry. The media and booking behavior of consumers has long been setting the pace of development here. According to Mitra Sorrels from Phocuswright, 66 percent of all travel bookings are now made online. Sorrells expects this proportion to rise to over 70 percent by 2027. Traditional business models of travel agencies and tour operators are coming under further pressure as a result, as the bankruptcy of the German tour operator FTI revealed last year - another development that the ITB Berlin Convention 2025 will address in a separate panel.

Artificial intelligence: opportunity or risk?

It is already clear that the digitalization of business is becoming increasingly intertwined with the potential applications of artificial intelligence. “More and more booking processes are being taken over by autonomous AI agents. And these agents are getting better and smarter all the time. AI will play a central role in companies in terms of data management and data analysis in the future,” predicts Sorrels.

The hopes of the industry are manifold: experts expect efficiency gains and problem solutions through AI-driven data management in areas as diverse as guest care, margin improvement, the realization of sustainability goals or the management of visitor flows. The extent to which these ambitions have a chance of success can hardly be seriously answered to date. A survey of participants at the ITB Berlin Convention indicates that the integration of AI into operational processes has so far only been completed in a third of all companies. The vast majority of the market is still in the introductory or trial phase, does not have the necessary specialist staff, is reluctant to make the necessary investments or considers AI to be of little relevance to its own business model. Beyond these business management problems, however, the AI revolution also raises questions at market and competitive level - for example, whether a more AI-driven tourism industry will primarily play into the hands of large internet platforms and tech providers or whether it will also open up new opportunities for SMEs and newcomers.

Tourism at the crossroads of global developments

The pressure to innovate and adapt therefore remains high on many levels. The growing desire of many holidaymakers for individual and “authentic” travel experiences, the diverse challenges of climate change, the opportunities and risks of complex new technologies, but also the growing instability of geopolitical factors are putting pressure on tourism from many different directions. Caroline Bremner from Euromonitor sums up the situation: “The industry is strong, but in 2025 it faces a number of uncertainties. AI and Donald Trump represent a new age of disruption. It's all pretty exciting, but also extremely challenging.”